PV & Energy Storage

WEEKLY MARKET BRIEFING

Weekly review of policy, pricing, projects and technology - and what it means for your sourcing

September 28, 2026 | Week 39 · September 21 - 27, 2026

SINELINK · Market Intelligence

At a Glance

▪ EU holds the Nov 1 line on Chinese inverters - The European Commission rejected calls from investors and the renewables industry to postpone the Nov 1 deadline. From that date, projects connected - or to be connected - to the EU grid must exclude inverters from suppliers classed as high-risk, with Chinese vendors expected to be affected. Alternative-supply windows are closing.

▪ Polysilicon transaction prices published again - up CNY 10,000/t since July - China's Silicon Industry Branch resumed weekly transaction price disclosure for the first time since Jul 29: N-type rod-grade averaged CNY 43,000/t and granular CNY 40,300/t, roughly CNY 10,000/t above late-July levels. Industry operating rates are expected to fall to about 35% from October.

▪ New York picks its first bulk storage projects - NYSERDA awarded Index Storage Credit contracts to eight lithium-ion projects totalling 950 MW / 4,360 MWh - about 15% of the 6.3 GW bid - with payments settled monthly for up to 15 years and all projects due in service by end-2030.

▪ US AD/CVD on Chinese modules ends in Canada - Canada's CITT terminated the second sunset review on Chinese PV modules and laminates (Sep 17), revoking the 2021 duty order. The measures had run since 2014. A small export market for China, but one fewer trade barrier.

▪ Poland's 2.4 GWh BYD-supplied BESS breaks ground - Greenvolt Power started construction at Siedlce, Poland, with BYD as battery supplier - part of a wider 900 MWh wave of project starts across Poland, Estonia and Lithuania. Chinese cells keep winning European grid-scale work despite the policy noise.

▪ Data centres are now pulling the US storage market - Wood Mackenzie says data-centre buildout is lifting the US BESS outlook across all segments, and Nvidia's new qualification programme for AI facilities now includes three battery storage solutions. AI demand is becoming a bankable anchor for storage orders.

Week in Numbers

The week's key figures in one place, for quick reference before the detail below.

1. Policy & Trade Watch

Europe - the inverter deadline holds; CBAM turns toward solar

▪ EU: Nov 1 exclusion deadline for high-risk-supplier inverters stands.Despite appeals from investors and the renewables industry for more time, the European Commission confirmed on Sep 23 that the Nov 1 deadline will not be extended. From that date, projects connected or planning to connect to the EU grid must exclude inverters from high-risk suppliers - with Chinese inverter vendors expected to fall in that category - or progressively switch to alternatives. The Commission says non-Chinese supply is available and that energy-infrastructure security justifies the cost. If your EU pipeline uses EU funding, re-check inverter compliance now.

▪ EU: CBAM negotiating position adds solar hardware for the first time.On Sep 15 the European Parliament adopted its negotiating position on extending the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, explicitly adding PV modules, solar trackers and mounting systems to the CBAM coverage list for the first time. Where importers cannot provide verified measured emissions, default intensity values apply - with punitive top-up coefficients of 10%, 20% and 30% for 2026, 2027 and 2028 respectively. Dated Sep 15, just before this reporting window, and not previously covered in this briefing. Still a negotiating position, not final law - but the direction is clear.

▪ Spain: 11 GW of grid capacity opens for allocation.The Ministry for Ecological Transition (MITECO), through the Institute for Just Transition, opened two prior consultations on Sep 24 to allocate up to 11 GW of grid access capacity for renewables and storage at former coal-region nodes: a fast-track procedure for 15 nodes, plus a competitive tender for the Guardo 220 kV and Velilla 400 kV nodes. Consultations run to Oct 8. Madrid is also preparing a national capacity market to remunerate firmness and flexibility from generation and storage.

Americas - one door closes in Washington, another opens in Ottawa

▪ Canada: AD/CVD on Chinese modules terminated.On Sep 17 the Canadian International Trade Tribunal ended the second sunset review of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese PV modules and laminates, revoking the duty order issued Mar 25, 2021. CBSA has stopped collecting the duties, formally closing measures that had run since 2014. Dated Sep 17 and not previously covered in this briefing. For context: Chinese module exports to Canada were about USD 10.96m / 119 MW in 2025 and USD 7.33m / 52 MW in Jan-Aug 2026 - a niche market, but one more tariff-free sourcing option.

▪ US: no new trade measures this week - but the clock is running.The Section 232 anti-stockpiling rule we covered in our Sep 23 Alert remains in force until Dec 3, and the minimum import prices take effect Dec 4. Separately, the ITC's final injury vote on the India / Indonesia / Laos AD/CVD case is due Oct 14; if affirmative, Commerce plans final duty orders around Nov 2. US onshoring continues: module maker Translucent Energy announced a plant in Summerville, South Carolina - USD 15.7m phase-one investment, 1.2 GW/year, full production by end-2026 - citing the 232 floor prices and the 45X credit as its rationale.

China - supply-side discipline moves from talk to paperwork

▪ Polysilicon output cuts entering the execution phase.With three mandatory energy-consumption and energy-efficiency national standards for the PV industry now in place, the Silicon Industry Branch reported that companies' production-adjustment plans are firming: total industry operating load is expected to fall to about 35% from October. Market reports - unconfirmed - say ministries have approved a voluntary capacity-reduction scheme and that companies will submit signed commitments at a Beijing meeting, with a coordinated 35% annual operating rate and a floor of no selling below full cost. Treat as unverified until official confirmation.

2. Pricing & Supply Chain

Polysilicon - official prices are back, and they are higher

▪ Silicon Industry Branch resumes weekly transaction prices.The branch published weekly polysilicon transaction prices on Sep 23 for the first time since Jul 29: N-type rod-grade (recharging material) averaged CNY 43,000/t and N-type granular CNY 40,300/t - both roughly CNY 10,000/t above the late-July prints of CNY 32,000 and CNY 31,000. Trading volume picked up modestly (3-4 counterparties transacting), and some downstream players have started restocking, but large-scale centralised buying has not begun.

▪ Support from costs and cuts; drag from inventory.N-type dense material averaged CNY 40.5/kg against a production cost of CNY 42.0/kg (net margin about -1.5/kg); cash cost CNY 33.5/kg and full cost CNY 45.3/kg keep a floor under offers. But the physical market is still loose: weekly polysilicon output rose 1.5% to about 27,000 t and wafer output 4.3% to 12.65 GW, with both polysilicon and wafer inventories still building. Futures are moving on expectations, not on destocking.

▪ October output seen smaller than first hoped.October polysilicon output is now estimated around 110,000 t - a reduction, but about 10,000 t less than the earlier cut scenario. Wafer output is expected to fall to roughly 51 GW in October. InfoLink cautions that cut execution may disappoint and that the inventory overhang remains the swing factor.

Price reference - week ending September 24, 2026

Prices are quoted in CNY on the standard Chinese ex-works basis and have not been converted to any other currency. Please apply your own contracted FX basis before comparing to landed cost.

▪ Market commentary.The chain is running a "strong expectations, weak transactions" pattern: polysilicon offers are anchored to full cost and supported by the October cut plans, but spot volumes are thin, wafers are pressuring the upstream, and module prices edge sideways - utility-scale 210 TOPCon even slipped CNY 0.003/W. The first sign of cost pass-through is appearing at cells, where 210R / 210N quotes are expected up CNY 0.005/W next week. Watch whether October cut execution actually lands; that determines whether Q4 pricing follows the futures market up.

Source: Silicon Industry Branch / Antaike weekly review (2026-09-23); Mysteel crystalline silicon PV weekly (2026-09-24); Northern Nonferrous Metals Network daily (2026-09-24); SMM via Huatai Futures (2026-09-24); Securities Times / InfoLink (2026-09-24)

3. Global Projects & Deals

Chinese suppliers - overseas wins this week

What it signals: development-bank-financed emerging markets (BOAD in Burkina Faso) and CEE grid-scale builds are both still open to Chinese cell supply, even as US and EU equipment-level restrictions tighten. The choke point is increasingly the system/equipment layer in funded European projects, not the battery itself.

Source: International Energy Storage Network (2026-09-22); Energy-Storage.News (2026-09-24)

Global project activity

▪ Demand signal - data centres.Wood Mackenzie reported on Sep 24 that data-centre buildout is lifting the US BESS outlook across all market segments. The same week, Nvidia's new qualification programme for AI-facility reference designs included three battery storage solutions - hyperscaler procurement channels are formalising storage requirements.

4. Technology & Products

▪ Huasun pushes HJT to 760 W and toward tandem.At the World Manufacturing Conference, Huasun New Energy showed its Himalaya PLUS heterojunction module - up to 760 W at 24.5% efficiency (750 W in mass production), 2,000 V system voltage and upgraded encapsulation with 95.8% module area utilisation - plus an HJT-perovskite tandem cell built on the low-temperature HJT process, and a flexible ultra-thin P-HJT cell aimed at space and specialty applications. The HJT platform is fanning out into tandem and specialty directions.

▪ Nvidia adds storage to its AI-facility qualification programme.Nvidia's new qualification programme for products meeting its AI-facility reference designs now includes three battery storage solutions. Storage is being written into hyperscale data-centre design standards - a demand channel that did not exist a few procurement cycles ago.

▪ PCS manufacturing moves onshore in the US.Spain-headquartered Power Electronics opened a factory in Houston, Texas - the US market is increasingly building domestic content supply chains for power conversion, a relevant datapoint if your US projects face domestic-content scoring. Separately, Heron Power landed a pilot with RWE.

No new certified efficiency records were logged in the international press this week. The tandem race of recent weeks (LONGi 35.5% cell, Trina 28.00% THBC) is quiet - next moves likely at Q4 industry shows.

5. What This Means for You

The following are editorial judgements drawn from the items above, offered as input to your own planning - not as advice, and not as verified fact.

The week in one line: the supply-side squeeze in China is moving from intention to execution while market-access walls in the US and EU keep rising - prices are quiet today, but the October output cuts are the single biggest variable for your Q4 module and cell costs.

If you have EU projects - especially EU-funded ones - audit your inverter supply chain now. The Nov 1 exclusion deadline for high-risk-supplier inverters was confirmed and will not move. Waiting for a delay that is not coming means competing for a shrinking pool of compliant supply in Q4, on worse terms.

Lock cell and module pricing before October ends if your contracts are indexed to China ex-works. Official polysilicon transaction prices are up roughly CNY 10,000/t from July, operating rates are set to fall to ~35%, and the first downstream pass-through is already quoted at cells (+CNY 0.005/W expected). Execution risk runs both ways - if cuts disappoint, this evaporates - but the downside is cushioned by full-cost floors.

Canada just became a tariff-free back door - a small one. With AD/CVD on Chinese modules terminated, Canadian projects can source Chinese modules without those duties. Volumes are tiny (~52 MW in Jan-Aug 2026), so treat it as a sourcing option for specific tenders, not a channel shift.

Write storage bids that answer the AI question. New York's first bulk awards contracted only 15% of what was bid, and the winning combination is increasingly a CfD-style revenue model plus data-centre adjacency (Wood Mackenzie's US outlook, Nvidia's qualification programme). If your BESS offering cannot show grid-service capability and hyperscale-grade qualification paths, you are bidding into the 85% that lost.

Watch these dates: Oct 8 (Spain grid-capacity consultations close), Oct 14 (US ITC injury vote on India / Indonesia / Laos), Nov 1 (EU inverter exclusion deadline), Dec 3-4 (US anti-stockpiling rule expiry / 232 minimum import prices take effect).

Sources

All items are compiled from public reporting and official releases. Primary sources:

• Official and regulatory: NYSERDA; European Commission (via Euronews); European Parliament; Canada CITT / CBSA; US Department of Commerce / ITC (via trade press); Spain MITECO / Institute for Just Transition; AEMO; Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association

• Industry media: Energy-Storage.News, Modo Energy, PV Tech, PV magazine, SMM (Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network), International Energy Storage Network

• Business and trade media: Euronews / Daily Guardian Europe, GCN, Reuters (via Solarbytes), Shanghai Securities News, Securities Times / eCompany, Mysteel, Northern Nonferrous Metals Network, Huatai Futures, InfoLink, Sohu

• Price data: Silicon Industry Branch / Antaike, Mysteel, SMM, Northern Nonferrous Metals Network