WEEKLY MARKET BRIEFING :China Moves To Restrict Perovskite And Tandem Exports As The US Closes Its Last Third-Country Solar Route

PV & Energy Storage

WEEKLY MARKET BRIEFING

Weekly review of policy, pricing, projects and technology - and what it means for your sourcing

October 19, 2026 | Week 42 · October 12 - 18, 2026

SINELINK · Market Intelligence

At a Glance

▪ China moves to lock down its next-generation solar technology - On Oct 16, China's Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology opened public comment on adding 40 key technologies to the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export - including a proposed outright EXPORT BAN on perovskite and tandem cell/module production technology. Twelve PV technologies are covered (polysilicon plant engineering, wafer and cell manufacturing, including the key equipment that carries the technology). Pre-export registration applies in the interim. Products made with the technology are not covered.

▪ The last door into the US closes: ITC injury vote confirmed - The US International Trade Commission's final affirmative injury determination (Oct 14) on crystalline silicon cells from India, Indonesia and Laos is now officially confirmed, clearing Commerce to issue AD/CVD orders in early November. Combined rates reach approximately 249% for India, 268% for Indonesia and 219% for Laos - stacking on top of Section 232 minimum import prices. Cash deposits begin on order publication.

▪ China's silicon majors draw a price line in the sand - Eight leading polysilicon producers met behind closed doors in Hangzhou (Oct 11) and set floors: polysilicon no lower than CNY 43,000/t (tax-incl.), BC modules no lower than CNY 0.86/W and TOPCon no lower than CNY 0.79/W - explicitly including export contracts and tenders. Problem: actual transactions sit below those floors, and module quotes quietly slipped another 1-3 fen/W after the holiday.

▪ Storage demand keeps printing records - China's September storage battery sales hit 73.5 GWh (+104.4% YoY; Jan-Sep 595.4 GWh, +111.8%), HiTHIUM crossed 200 GWh cumulative shipments, and India's Rajasthan awarded a 2,450 MW solar + 1,600 MW/6,400 MWh BESS park. Greece commissioned and financed two of Europe's largest standalone batteries in the same week.

▪ The week's benchmark: CNY 0.5206/Wh for 2.98 GWh - CNNC's 2026-2028 LFP storage system framework (Oct 14) went to Sungrow, CATL, Zhongtian, CRRC Zhuzhou and Kehua at CNY 0.4995-0.5329/Wh - a clean, large-volume price reference for anyone buying Chinese grid-scale systems this quarter.

Week in Numbers

The week's key figures in one place, for quick reference before the detail below.

1. Policy & Trade Watch

China - the technology moat proposal

▪ Beijing proposes to ban export of perovskite and tandem solar manufacturing technology (Announcement No. 48, Oct 16). China's Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology opened public comment on revising the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export: 40 key technologies across AI, biopharma and PV. On the PV side, 12 technologies are listed - perovskite and tandem cell/module production technology is proposed for outright prohibition; polysilicon plant engineering (lines of 30,000 t/yr or more per line), wafer manufacturing and cell manufacturing technologies are proposed for restriction, with the control extending to the key and core equipment carrying the technology. Pre-export registration applies as an interim measure while consultation runs. Officials stressed the measures do not target any specific country and that products made with the listed technologies are not covered.

Status: public consultation, not yet in force. Interim pre-export registration is already applying. Watch the final catalogue text and effective date.

Source: MOFCOM/MOST Announcement 2026 No. 48 via mofcom.gov.cn (2026-10-16); Guangming Daily (2026-10-18); pv magazine (2026-10-16)

United States - the India/Indonesia/Laos wall is now official

▪ USITC injury determination confirmed; orders and cash deposits early November. The US International Trade Commission has issued its final affirmative injury determination in the Solar IV AD/CVD investigations on crystalline silicon PV cells (whether or not assembled into modules) from India, Indonesia and Laos (vote Oct 14; confirmation reported Oct 16). Commerce is scheduled to publish the AD/CVD orders in early November 2026, after which Customs and Border Protection begins final duty cash deposits on all entries from the three countries. Final margins: India dumping 123.04% plus CVD 126.09% (combined ~249%); Indonesia dumping 94.36%, CVD 73.2-173.7% (combined up to ~268%); Laos dumping 65.43%, CVD 82.03-153.67% (combined up to ~219%). These stack on top of Section 232 minimum import price floors. The ITC's full public report (USITC Publication 5804) is due by November 23, 2026. Petitioners: Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade (First Solar, Hanwha Qcells USA, Mission Solar).

▪ 337 and 301 pressure on the storage side continues. The US has opened a Section 337 investigation into AI-data-centre power-supply equipment with multiple Chinese companies named as respondents (reported Oct 14) - following 337 actions on battery anode material (June) and cylindrical cells (August). Separately, Section 301 duties on Chinese storage batteries have risen from 7.5% to 25%, bringing combined duty to roughly 48.4% depending on the accounting basis.

Source: pv magazine / USITC (2026-10-16); Nanjing CCPIT translation of USITC release (2026-10-16); Chinese trade media compilation on 337/301 (2026-10-14 to 10-16)

Europe - local-content strings attached to storage, still at proposal stage

▪ EU Industrial Accelerator Act would phase in storage local-content requirements. Under the European Commission's Industrial Accelerator Act proposal (tabled in March; reported in Chinese media Oct 16 via a Goldman Sachs note): six months after entry into force, energy storage systems would need at least three major components meeting EU-origin requirements (including cells); three years after, at least five (adding, e.g., cathode active material and BMS). The proposal also foresees pre-approval for new EU projects above EUR 100m in battery-related fields by investors from non-FTA countries holding over 40% of relevant global capacity. Status: proposal only - not yet in force.

Source: EU Industrial Accelerator Act proposal via Goldman Sachs note / Chinese media (2026-10-16)

2. Pricing & Supply Chain

Floors announced upstairs, discounts offered downstairs

▪ Eight silicon majors set price floors - including for exports. At a closed-door meeting in Hangzhou on Oct 11 (the third industry self-discipline session after Shanghai and Chengdu), Tongwei, GCL, Daqo and five other leading polysilicon producers agreed on a capacity-reduction implementation plan and set price floors: polysilicon average cost, tax-included, no lower than CNY 43,000/t; BC modules no lower than CNY 0.86/W; TOPCon modules no lower than CNY 0.79/W - explicitly covering export contracts, third-party procurement and tenders. A mutual-surveillance mechanism targets below-floor dumping. The catch: market transactions currently sit below those floors (N-type recharging grade around CNY 40.5-43/kg; TOPCon central-supply modules roughly CNY 0.65-0.73/W), and module makers are numerous enough that enforcement of a silicon-led module floor is widely doubted.

▪ Module prices: officially flat, quietly falling. Price index provider DBM reported six module makers cutting quoted prices by up to CNY 0.03/W in the days after the holiday (Oct 14), with two more following on Oct 16 ('high-efficiency modules down 1-3 fen/W'). Mysteel's weekly characterises the module market as 'stable on the surface, falling underneath': tier-one quotes held at CNY 0.72-0.75/W while large volumes of CNY 0.66-0.68/W material circulates. If the Hangzhou floors are actually enforced - including on export contracts - Chinese export quotes could firm; that is a big if.

▪ October output cuts in execution - inventory still climbing. Silicon branch data: September polysilicon output 120.4 kt (+1.3% MoM); October planned at ~105 kt (-12.9% MoM), with some estimates (Baichuan Yingfu) as low as ~92 kt. But September wafers output of 55.27 GW consumed only ~94 kt of silicon, adding 24 kt to stockpile; end-September industry inventory stands around 572 kt and the destocking inflection is not confirmed. Futures told the story: the main contract slid to 33,255 CNY/t on Oct 15 (-3.19%), leaving a ~CNY 9,000/t gap to spot, before rebounding 1.34% to 34,285 on Oct 16 alongside a 2.29% industrial-silicon bounce.

▪ Demand side still soft; exports the bright spot. China's PV product exports grew 10.3% YoY in the first three quarters (customs data via Mysteel). September module output was 39.83 GW (-4.54% MoM) with capacity utilisation at just 43.7%; September module tendered volume roughly halved month-on-month per DBM. September storage battery sales printed 73.5 GWh (+104.4% YoY; Jan-Sep 595.4 GWh, +111.8%).

Price reference - October 16, 2026 (China, CNY)

Prices are quoted in CNY on the standard Chinese basis and have not been converted to any other currency. Please apply your own contracted FX basis before comparing to landed cost. Sources use differing bases (index vs mainstream quote vs transaction range); spot polysilicon quotes cluster at 40.5-43 CNY/kg depending on grade and source.

▪ Storage system price benchmark of the week. CNNC's 2026-2028 LFP storage system central procurement (2.98 GWh, 33 bidders) was awarded Oct 14 at CNY 0.4995-0.5329/Wh (average 0.5206) to Sungrow, CATL, Zhongtian Energy Storage, CRRC Zhuzhou Institute and Kehua - covering 2-hour and 4-hour, 1500V DC systems with grid-service requirements. Weekly Chinese storage tender and award volume reached 50.39 GWh; 2-hour EPC averaged CNY 0.9998/Wh (range 0.7936-1.2496).

Source: Silicon Industry Branch / Securities Times (2026-10-14); Mysteel weekly (2026-10-16); DBM databm.com index (2026-10-16); GFEX settlement via Chinese wires (2026-10-15/16); SMM on CNNC award (2026-10-14); International Energy Storage Network weekly tally (2026-10-16); Mysteel customs export data (2026-10-14)

3. Global Projects & Deals

Chinese suppliers - overseas wins this week

What it signals: the Middle East and Japan are now both routine destinations for Chinese grid-scale storage delivery - an EPC plus full-system-supply double win on the same Japanese auction project is new, and Saudi's first 8 GWh battery tranche is being built with Chinese EPC muscle. Geography of demand is widening even as US/EU access rules tighten.

Global project activity

Source: The Battery Magazine / pvknowhow on HELLENiQ and METLEN (2026-10-16); Megaproject on Econergy and Rajasthan (2026-10-16 to 10-17); InforCapital on Foresight-FRV (2026-10-16); Inspenet on Entech (2026-10-16); Malaysia SME (2026-10-13); Chinese wires on Botswana and CATL South Africa (2026-10-14 to 10-16); POWERCHINA/BESSNews on SEPCO Saudi (2026-10-13/16)

4. Technology & Products

▪ The export-control proposal is itself a technology story. The proposed prohibition on perovskite and tandem production technology (see Section 1) is the strongest signal yet of where Beijing sees its technological lead: in next-generation cell architectures. Tandem roadmaps disclosed this week underline why - Trina Solar told investors its perovskite-tandem cells enter small-scale production in 2028-2029 with GW-scale capacity by 2029. If you are planning technology licensing or JV manufacturing in tandem tech with a Chinese partner, treat the final catalogue text as a gating document.

Source: MOFCOM/MOST Announcement 2026 No. 48 (2026-10-16); Trina Solar results briefing via Mysteel (2026-10-15/16)

▪ World Energy Storage Congress (Ningde, Oct 15-16): policy and product signals. China's MIIT used the congress to publicise the new Five-Year Plan for the battery industry: initial scale-up of all-solid-state batteries by 2030, lithium batteries with 15,000-cycle life for leading products, and defect rates at parts-per-billion level for head enterprises. CATL chairman Robin Zeng framed storage as shifting from 'ancillary equipment for renewables' to 'new power-system infrastructure', and CATL announced a partnership agreement with IRENA alongside a claimed 3,000+ storage projects delivered globally. HiTHIUM crossed 200 GWh of cumulative shipments, with management saying future growth comes from 4-hour-plus long-duration and data-centre applications, and noting customers are moving from cell purchases to full-system and whole-station delivery.

Source: CCTV / Guangming Daily / Shanghai Securities News (2026-10-15 to 10-16); SMM / Wallstreetcn on HiTHIUM (2026-10-15)

▪ Anti-glare HJT modules for airports and reflective-adjacent sites. Risen Energy launched the Hyper-ion anti-glare HJT series (Oct 13, via pv magazine Australia): dual-layer optical design with TÜV-measured max daylight glare probability 0.30 (below the Class AAA threshold of 0.35), mirror reflectance as low as 0.85%, power 710-730 W at 22.9-23.5% efficiency, bifacial output up to 818 W, temperature coefficient -0.24%/°C, 30-year warranty. Niche but relevant where airports, highways or residential glare rules constrain module choice.

Source: pv magazine Australia (2026-10-13)

No new certified efficiency records landed in the international press this week. The structural tech stories are the export-control proposal on next-gen cell technology and the all-solid-state/15,000-cycle targets in China's five-year battery plan - both point to 2027-2030 supply-side differentiation, not immediate product changes.

5. What This Means for You

The following are editorial judgements drawn from the items above, offered as input to your own planning - not as advice, and not as verified fact.

The week in one line: China moved to wall off its next-generation solar technology just as the US finished walling off its market from India, Indonesia and Laos - while Chinese storage and EPC suppliers kept winning at record scale everywhere else. Access and technology moats, not price, are this week's story.

If your roadmap involves licensing or JV-manufacturing perovskite or tandem technology with a Chinese partner, treat MOFCOM/MOST Announcement No. 48 as a live constraint, not a headline: pre-export registration is already applying to listed technologies while the consultation runs, and the control extends to the equipment that embodies the technology. Wafer, cell and polysilicon-engineering tech (≥30 kt/yr lines) are in the restricted tier. Build licence-denial risk into any 2027+ technology-sourcing plan.

Third-country routes into the US are now effectively closed: the Nov 2 AD/CVD orders on India, Indonesia and Laos complete the ring that already covers Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam. If you hold US-bound supply contracts routed through any of these seven origins, re-price or re-contract before cash deposits start in early November - and note the duties stack on top of Section 232 minimum import prices.

On China pricing, negotiate against the spread, not the quote. Headline module quotes are being defended (and a CNY 0.79/W TOPCon floor announced) while real deals print at CNY 0.66-0.68/W and eight makers quietly cut list prices after the holiday. Two-sided risk: if the Hangzhou floors are enforced - they explicitly cover exports - Chinese export quotes could firm suddenly. Lock volume pricing for Q4-Q1 deliveries now; treat upside risk as more likely than downside.

Use the CNNC benchmark when quoting Chinese systems: CNY 0.5206/Wh average (0.4995-0.5329) for 2.98 GWh of 2h/4h LFP systems from five tier-one suppliers is the cleanest large-volume reference point this quarter. Quotes materially above that for comparable scope deserve a second bid; 2-hour EPC averaging CNY 0.9998/Wh (China basis) helps sanity-check balance-of-plant pricing.

Storage demand signals keep accelerating: China's September battery sales +104% YoY, HiTHIUM at 200 GWh cumulative, 6.4 GWh of BESS awarded in one Indian auction, and Greece commissioning two of Europe's largest standalone batteries in a week. For procurement planning, assume delivery slots at credible tier-one suppliers tighten into 2027 - the market's own words ('orders booked to end-2027') say capacity, not demand, is the binding constraint.

Watch these dates: early Nov (US Commerce AD/CVD orders on India/Indonesia/Laos - cash deposits begin), Nov 23 (USITC Publication 5804, full report), Dec 3-4 (US anti-stockpiling window closes / Section 232 tariffs and minimum import prices take effect), and the close of China's comment period on the export-control catalogue - final text and effective date TBA.

Sources

All items are compiled from public reporting and official releases. Primary sources:

• Official and regulatory: MOFCOM/MOST Announcement 2026 No. 48 (mofcom.gov.cn); USITC via pv magazine and Nanjing CCPIT translation; US Commerce/BIS via trade media; EU Industrial Accelerator Act proposal via Goldman Sachs note and Chinese media; Silicon Industry Branch; customs data via Mysteel

• Industry media: pv magazine (Global/Australia), pvknowhow, The Battery Magazine, Megaproject, Inspenet, InforCapital, BESSNews, SMM, DBM (databm.com), International Energy Storage Network, Mysteel, Energy-Storage related wires

• Chinese trade and finance media: Securities Times, Guangming Daily, China Daily, Economic Daily, CCTV, Shanghai Securities News, Wallstreetcn, Tonghuashun, Sinolink Securities daily, Northern Nonferrous Metals Network

• Corporate: POWERCHINA/SEPCO, Trina Storage, CATL, Haibo Sicchuang results briefing, DoGo Power, HiTHIUM, Risen Energy, Trina Solar briefing, Foresight/FRV, Econergy, METLEN, HELLENiQ Energy

Disclaimer: This weekly briefing compiles publicly available information and is provided for general market reference only. It does not constitute investment, legal, tax or commercial advice, and no warranty is given as to accuracy or completeness. Figures such as project size, contract value, duty rates and prices should be verified against the original source document before being relied upon. Items described as proposals (including China's export-control catalogue revision and the EU Industrial Accelerator Act) are not yet in force and may change; combined US duty rates are estimates compiled from trade press. Items reported as market information or unconfirmed (including the Hangzhou price-floor meeting details and module price-cut reports) have not been independently verified. Price assessments reflect the Chinese domestic basis in CNY and are not converted. Section 5 contains editorial judgement, clearly separated from reported fact.